A Facebook Experiment.
Bereft trust and respect
Bye buy button
Why aren’t they famous yet?
Only time will tell.
Many of us expert in industrial recommender systems matching Supply and Demand missed the change over from shortage of supply to shortage of demand.
Venture Capital didn’t miss this backing anything mining demand inferences. In doing so helping create the open source Web 2.0 Hadoop business architecture to mine closed data sources for your personal demand, or rather inferences of your personal intentions, then often sold to advertisers for targeting.
Private Equity didn’t miss this shift, taking nearly every public ERP/CRM company operating at scale private. At the core of ERP is MRP (material requirements planning) which business use to match supply/demand. With shortage of supply, MRP behaves as a recommender system for chasing exceptions. With abundant supply, that came with globalization, quality demand becomes the imperative to chase.
In hindsight a new classes of companies have come to the for to creating certainty of demand. Greg Gottlesman at Madrona Venture Capital believes that Amazon is in the process of becoming the world’s most valuable company. Amazon creates the best quality demand, a credit card cleared order.
Meanwhile Facebook uses social computing to gather and mine personal data for demand, and sprinkles in adverts to help persuade demand. Others sell your data to ad-tech for targeting. Some even sell your identity details. Just about all make extensive use of Web 2.0 Hadoop for “big data” demand mining.
What can upset this Golden Pony, shortage of supply?
Shortage of water, oil and other precious raw materials can and will disrupt supply and demand. For example McDonalds and Nike are already investing in smaller suppliers and alternative sources to add diversity and reduce risks in regions of the world with sustainability issues like Indonesia and drought regions.
Nike even went as far as hiring Ward Cunningham to help with prototypes for working in the emerging era of sustainability. Alas, currently over investment in demand systems feels inversely proportional to under investment in supply systems technologies.
For example the core algorithm for MRP, around since 1970s has been revised for the demand driven era by Carol Patk & Chad Smith in Orlicky’s third ‘DDMRP’ edition — but not web 2.0 social technology updated. Internally we can surmise Amazon has built Hadoop MRP.
The DDMRP authors are superb APICs, Goldratt, TOC, Lean, operations experts not computer scientists — Carlos Guestrin, Ed Chi — versed in machine learning, or social computing technologies.
What can upset this Golden Pony, shortage of demand?
Another possibility, the search for quality demand runs into stricter privacy laws in Europe, UK, Australia. Requiring a shift from away from mining personal data. Emerging pointers supporting this direction are:
All these are private by default, put the person or enterprise back to control of their own data for generating quality demand in a granular fashion. Doc’s keynote for the Respect Network brings this shift to trust and respect into commercial perspective.
Net-net: I need to find a startup crazy enough to explore updating MRP, to match demand and supply with VRM and Respect. Perhaps Jordan Ritter of Napster fame, who has set up Ivy Softworks in Seattle for Data Psychics will incubate joining up the dots?
[Business Insider: By 2045 ‘The Top Species Will No Longer Be Humans,’ And That Could Be A Problem]
A scary thought …
That is the goal of Azure Machine Learning. “This is, as far as I know, the first comprehensive machine learning service in the cloud,” Mr. Sirosh said. “I’m leveraging every asset in Microsoft for this.” He is also using ways of accessing an open source version of R, a standard statistical language, while in Azure.
We often work with industries that in many ways operate behind the times when it comes to the Internet. This is particularly true of B2B enterprises that have seen many sales & marketing organizations doing things the same way they always have. So when they try something new like social media or mobile apps or collaboration, they run up against the sea of doubters asking “why”.
The challenge is that these strategies tend to be presented as pie-in-the-sky initiatives. With no direct connection with how it will drive sales or improve customer relationships or address other critical and measurable KPI’s, skepticism runs high. That is why we believe it is best to think about newer strategies as iterative, that directly engage key groups, particularly sales, and can show positive impact.
Strategies around efficient distribution of content that aid the sales process is one such valuable strategy. You can measure the engagement of the content and how it is used throughout the sales process. If executed well, no one ever has to ask whether it is something that “no one wants and no one needs”.
Better adapt to The European way of doing business.
After having returned to my home country Germany after almost 20 years abroad I realise the many things that have changed, mostly to the better. It is not only the Euro, but how much more globally minded the continent has become, despite some ugly right wing movements.
For all those of you (particularly US startups) that intend to come to Europe to do business here, this article provides valuable advice that may help to succeed: